Mr. President, Mr. Prime Minister,
I write as a citizen of both Canada and France, with a deep attachment to North America, where I have built my life, and to Europe, where I studied and where my roots remain. I write not to take sides, but because I believe the partnership between our two countries is one of the world’s great sources of stability, and that restoring it would benefit people everywhere.
1. The scale of what we share
In 2026, the International Monetary Fund projects U.S. GDP at $32.38 trillion and Canada’s at $2.51 trillion, out of a world total of about $126.3 trillion. Together, that is $34.89 trillion, or roughly 27.6% of the world’s economic output, produced by two neighbours sharing the longest peaceful border on earth.
The flows between us are immense. Total U.S.-Canada trade reached $879.9 billion in goods and services in 2025. Divided by 365 days, that is about $2.4 billion crossing our border every single day.
2. The ratios of interdependence
The relationship matters to both countries, though in different proportions, which is exactly why cooperation serves both.
For Canada, the United States receives 76.4% of exports, while the European Union receives 4.4%. That is a ratio of about 17 to 1. A simple calculation shows what this means: if Canada lost just 10% of its exports to the U.S., it would need to increase its exports to the EU by about 174% to make up the difference (10% × 76.4 ÷ 4.4). Yet even CETA, a remarkably successful agreement under which EU-Canada trade grew 71% since 2017, took eight years to achieve less than half of that growth. Europe is a valued partner for Canada, but it cannot mathematically replace our neighbour, nor should anyone ask it to.
For the United States, Canada is equally essential, though in a different way. Canada is the leading export market for half of all U.S. states, and for some the dependence is striking: 41% of Maine’s exports and 39% of Michigan’s go to Canada. Canadians buy about a seventh of all American goods exports. American industry relies on Canadian inputs as well: more than half of U.S. primary aluminum consumption comes from Canada. And capital flows both ways: Canadian direct investment in the United States was US$683.8 billion in 2022, making Canada the second-largest source of foreign investment in America.
The trade balance between us is modest relative to the size of the relationship, and largely reflects energy: Canada accounts for one of the smallest U.S. trade deficits, owing largely to U.S. demand for energy-related products.
3. Growth, revenues and balanced budgets
Both our governments face the challenge of balancing their budgets. In 2024, the U.S. federal budget balance stood at −6.4% of GDP, with government revenue equal to 29.9% of GDP. A simple sensitivity ratio illustrates why growth matters so much: on a $32.38 trillion economy, every 0.1 percentage point of lost growth means about $32 billion less output, and at a 29.9% revenue ratio, roughly $9.7 billion less public revenue each year. The same logic applies to Canada. Trade friction that slows growth on either side of the border makes balancing the books harder for both. Cooperation that sustains growth makes it easier.
4. Why a united North America benefits Europe and the world
North America’s prosperity and Europe’s are not rivals. They are linked. The European Union and the United States together represent almost 30% of global trade in goods and services and 43% of global GDP. Their partnership is remarkably balanced: in 2025, the gap between them was about €20 billion, or just 1% of total trade. The European Union is also the largest destination for U.S. exports, at 18.8%, with Canada and Mexico each at 15.3%.
These relationships form a single, interconnected Atlantic economy. When trade between Canada and the United States is disrupted, European firms with supply chains in North America feel it too. Today, tariffs worldwide are weighing on everyone: one European forecast estimates they will reduce EU GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in 2026, and the OECD expects real GDP growth of just 1.5% in the U.S. and 1% in the EU this year. The World Trade Organization has warned that every region of the world will see weaker import performance in 2026.
A stable, cooperative North America would be good news for every one of them. It would give European exporters a predictable market, reassure investors on every continent, and show the world that even the closest partners can settle disagreements through dialogue.
5. Conclusion: Many Views, One Shared Interest
I am fully aware that thoughtful people hold different views on this question, and I respect each of them.
Those who support the current American tariffs believe they are a legitimate tool to correct long-standing grievances, protect American workers and industries, and bring partners to the negotiating table. Many Canadians, for their part, believe that responding firmly was necessary to defend our industries and our dignity as a nation, and that diversifying our trade toward Europe and Asia is a prudent safeguard against uncertainty. Europeans, meanwhile, watch our dispute with understandable concern, since their own prosperity is tied to a stable North American market. And on both sides of the border, workers, farmers and business owners simply want to know what the rules will be tomorrow, so they can plan, hire and invest.
Each of these perspectives contains a part of the truth. My purpose is not to declare any of them wrong, nor to assign blame to any leader or any country. I write as a dual citizen of Canada and France, offering my own opinion as a former teacher of mathematics who believes numbers can help us see past our differences. I may well be mistaken in some of my judgments, and I welcome correction. I simply ask that the message be weighed on its merits, whatever one thinks of the messenger.
If we set politics aside for a moment, the arithmetic points in one direction: our two economies are so deeply intertwined that any loss to one becomes a loss to the other, and ultimately to our trading partners around the world. With that in mind, I respectfully offer a few practical ideas, not as demands, but as possible starting points.
First, a gradual and mutual de-escalation, sector by sector, beginning with goods where both countries suffer most, so that neither side is asked to concede first or alone. Second, a permanent joint economic council, meeting regularly and away from the spotlight, where disputes over issues such as dairy, alcohol, lumber or autos can be resolved by experts before they escalate into tariffs. Third, a shared North American strategy in areas where our interests are naturally aligned, such as energy, critical minerals, and secure supply chains, so that our cooperation becomes a strength we build together rather than a concession either side makes. Fourth, a commitment that North American cooperation and Canada’s partnerships with Europe and other regions are complementary rather than competing, so that every trading partner gains from a stable continent.
None of these ideas belongs to any party or ideology. They rest on a simple principle: that neighbours who prosper together are stronger than neighbours who prosper apart.
President Trump, Prime Minister Carney, you carry the hopes of an estimated 380 million people on this continent (by my own rough count, which may not be exact), and the attention of many more beyond it. I respectfully ask you to work hand in hand, so that North America may remain a source of prosperity and stability not only for its own citizens, but for our friends in Europe and across the world.
With respect and hope,
Paul Sinclair
Vancouver, British Columbia
Sources
GDP figures: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (April 2026). U.S. budget and revenue ratios, U.S. export partner shares: U.S. government data as compiled in public references.
U.S.-Canada trade and tariff measures: Congressional Research Service; USAFacts; U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data. Canadian export and import shares: Statistics Canada data as compiled in public references.
U.S. state export shares: U.S. Commerce Department data, via Progressive Policy Institute and Visual Capitalist (2025). Canadian investment in the U.S.: U.S. International Trade Administration.
EU-U.S. trade: Council of the European Union and European Commission (2025 provisional data). CETA results: European Commission study (2025). Tariff impact forecasts: EY European Economic Outlook (March 2026); OECD Economic Outlook; World Trade Organization.
Calculations (combined GDP share, daily trade, the 174% replacement ratio, and the revenue sensitivity) are the author’s own, derived from the figures above, and are illustrative.
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